If there’s one tool every trader should open before looking at a chart, it’s the economic calendar. It lists every scheduled release and event that can move the market: jobs reports, inflation, central bank decisions, speeches. Trading without it is like driving without checking the weather when a storm is forecast.
TorontoForex is building its own economic calendar. Until it’s live, the one I use is the calendar on Forex Factory (forexfactory.com). Here’s how to read it, set it up, and build a routine around it. The same ideas apply to any calendar.
Why the calendar matters
- Scheduled news causes many of the biggest moves of the day. A single release can move a currency more in a minute than it moved all morning.
- Spreads widen around releases, and stops can be hit by brief spikes.
- Many losing trades are simply bad timing: a position opened five minutes before a report the trader didn’t know was coming.
Knowing what’s scheduled lets you decide in advance: stand aside, reduce size, or plan to trade the reaction.
Reading the columns
Most calendars, including Forex Factory, show the same core information:
| Column | What it means |
|---|---|
| Time | When the event happens. Make sure it’s set to your time zone |
| Currency | Which currency is most affected (USD, CAD, EUR…) |
| Impact | How much the event typically moves the market |
| Event | The release or announcement |
| Actual | The real number, filled in at release time |
| Forecast | The consensus expectation |
| Previous | Last period’s number, sometimes revised |
On Forex Factory, impact is shown with coloured icons: red for high impact, orange for medium, yellow for low, and grey for non-economic events like holidays.
Actual vs forecast vs previous
This is where most beginners go wrong. The market doesn’t react to whether a number is “good” or “bad.” It reacts to how the actual result compares with the forecast.
- Actual better than forecast: usually supports that currency.
- Actual worse than forecast: usually weighs on it.
- Actual close to forecast: often little reaction, because it was already priced in.
The previous number matters because it shapes the forecast, and because revisions to it can change the picture. A strong new number with a big downward revision to last month may not be strong at all. We go into this in our guide to trading the jobs report.
Set it up properly
- Set your time zone to Toronto (Eastern). A calendar on the wrong time zone is worse than no calendar. This matters especially around the clock changes; see our guide to daylight saving time and forex.
- Filter by currency. Only show the currencies you trade. If you trade USD/CAD and EUR/USD, filter to USD, CAD and EUR.
- Filter by impact. Most traders only need high and medium impact events. Low-impact releases rarely move markets on their own.
- Use the event details. Clicking an event on Forex Factory shows what it measures, how often it’s released, and how it has moved markets in the past.
Set alerts so you don’t have to watch
You don’t need to stare at the calendar all day. Set reminders for the events that matter:
- Add key events to your phone calendar with a reminder 15 to 30 minutes before.
- Use your trading platform’s tools. MetaTrader 5, for example, includes a built-in economic calendar that can show events on your charts.
- Mark the weekly anchors: US data at 8:30 a.m., Canadian data at 8:30 a.m., Bank of Canada decisions at 9:45 a.m., and Fed decisions at 2:00 p.m.
Combined with price alerts at your levels, this means you only look at the market when something relevant is about to happen.
Events that matter most for Toronto traders
| Event | Currency | Typical time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| US jobs report (NFP) | USD | 8:30 a.m., usually first Friday |
| US CPI | USD | 8:30 a.m., mid-month |
| Fed rate decision | USD | 2:00 p.m., eight times a year |
| Canadian jobs report (LFS) | CAD | 8:30 a.m., usually first Friday |
| Canadian CPI | CAD | 8:30 a.m., mid-month |
| Bank of Canada decision | CAD | 9:45 a.m., eight times a year |
| ECB decision | EUR | Morning in Toronto |
| US crude oil inventories | Oil, CAD | 10:30 a.m. Wednesdays |
Our guides to Canadian CPI and jobs data and Bank of Canada announcements go deeper on the Canadian events.
A weekly calendar routine
- Sunday: open the calendar, filter to your currencies, high and medium impact. Note every major event for the week.
- Mark central bank weeks. If a currency’s central bank announces this week, consider avoiding it, as we suggest in our Bank of Canada guide.
- Set reminders for each high-impact event.
- Each morning: check the day’s events and forecasts before planning trades.
- After a release: note the actual vs forecast and how the market reacted, in your journal.
Over time, that last step builds your own record of which releases actually move the pairs you trade, and how.
The bottom line
The economic calendar tells you when the market is likely to move and why. Set it to Toronto time, filter it to your currencies and to high and medium impact, and remember that markets react to actual versus forecast, not to the number alone. Set reminders so you’re never surprised, build a Sunday routine, and plan every trading day around what’s scheduled.
Disclosure: The author, Mike Harding, founded Academy of Financial Markets in Toronto and teaches its mentorship program. TorontoForex is not affiliated with Forex Factory. This article is educational and is not financial advice. Trading carries a high level of risk.