The US jobs report, officially the Employment Situation report and better known as non-farm payrolls or NFP, is one of the biggest scheduled events in the currency market. It usually comes out on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The next one is due Friday, November 6. And this one comes with extras: it’s three days after the US midterm elections, and Canada’s own jobs report is scheduled for the same morning. Here’s how the release works and how I approach it.
What’s in the report
The headline number is the change in non-farm payrolls: how many jobs the US economy added or lost last month. But the report includes several numbers the market watches:
| Number | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Non-farm payrolls | The headline: jobs added or lost |
| Unemployment rate | Slack in the labour market |
| Average hourly earnings | Wage growth, which feeds inflation |
| Revisions to previous months | Can change the picture as much as the new number |
A strong headline with big downward revisions can produce a very different reaction than the headline alone suggests.
It’s the surprise that moves markets
This is the most important thing to understand about trading any data release. The market reacts to the gap between the actual number and the forecast, the consensus of economists’ predictions published ahead of time.
The previous month’s number matters too, but mostly because it shapes the forecast. If economists expect a big change from last month, that expectation is usually already reflected in prices before the release. What moves the market at 8:30 is whether the actual result beats or misses that forecast, and by how much.
Here’s how I use that. I trade news reports mainly when the forecast shows a big expected change from the previous report, or when I think there’s room for a real surprise. I also look at how forecasts have shifted in the days and weeks leading into the release. When forecasts have been moving a lot, it tells you the market’s expectations are unsettled, which is often when a surprise hits hardest.
This week: three events stacked together
- US midterms on Tuesday. The result may already have moved the dollar by Friday. Our midterm elections guide covers how to handle that.
- US jobs report, Friday 8:30 a.m.
- Canada’s Labour Force Survey, also Friday 8:30 a.m. Two jobs reports in the same minute can whip USD/CAD one way and then the other, as we explained in our guide to Canadian CPI and jobs data.
If you trade USD/CAD, this is one of the most volatile mornings of the month.
My approach: wait for the move, then the pullback
I don’t try to guess the number and hold a position into 8:30. Spreads widen, prices jump, and the first move often reverses. Instead:
- Before the release: know the forecast, the previous number, and how forecasts have changed.
- At 8:30: stand aside. Let the market react.
- Watch the first move. Which direction did price go, and does it make sense given the surprise?
- Wait for a pullback. After the initial spike, price often pulls back part of the way.
- Look for an entry on the pullback in the direction of the initial move, if the move still makes sense.
That pullback often lands in a fair value gap. A big news candle frequently leaves a gap behind, and price coming back into it is exactly the kind of area FVG traders watch. Example 10 in our fair value gap guide shows this pattern.
Not every release gives you this setup. Sometimes the first move fully reverses, and sometimes there’s no clean pullback at all. When that happens, there’s no trade.
Common mistakes on NFP day
- Holding a full-size position into the release. You’re gambling on a number, with widened spreads and slippage.
- Placing tight stops right before 8:30. A brief spike can take them out before the real move.
- Chasing the first candle. Entering after a huge move means a terrible risk-reward if it snaps back.
- Ignoring revisions and wages. The headline isn’t the whole story.
- Trading every release. If there’s no meaningful surprise potential, there may be no edge.
And remember the cost side: spreads widen sharply around 8:30. Our guide to spreads, commissions and swaps explains why that matters.
The bottom line
The US jobs report comes out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, usually on the first Friday of the month, and the next one, on November 6, lands alongside Canada’s jobs report and just after the US midterms. Markets react to the surprise against the forecast, not the number on its own. Stand aside at the release, let the first move happen, wait for a pullback, often into the gap left by the news candle, and only then look for an entry that still makes sense.
Disclosure: The author, Mike Harding, founded Academy of Financial Markets in Toronto and teaches its mentorship program. Release dates can change; confirm them on an economic calendar. This article is educational and is not financial advice. Trading carries a high level of risk.